Prediction markets

Prediction Markets Oracle Wallet

A prediction market wallet holds a position governed by a specific question and settlement process. The oracle helps establish an outcome under those rules; the market price answers a different question. This topic focuses on interpreting the contract, tracking disputes, and distinguishing a possible trade from the eventual settlement of the position.

Read the complete proposition

Preserve the actual market question, qualifying conditions, relevant deadline, and accepted evidence source. A shortened headline may omit the condition that determines the result. In a hypothetical market, an event occurring and an official source confirming it are different requirements. A wallet should show which one the rules use. Keep ambiguous wording visible for review rather than replacing it with a confident summary.

Track resolution as a process

Polymarket's dispute documentation provides one example of a proposed resolution entering a challenge process, with disputed outcomes handled through UMA. Other markets can use different arrangements. The review should identify the mechanism applicable to the actual position, the current state, and what evidence makes the result final. A proposed outcome is not interchangeable with a completed settlement. Avoid importing rules from another similarly named market.

Separate prediction, price, and settlement

A forecast expresses an expectation. A trade quote describes an offered exchange under current conditions. Settlement follows the market's rules. A useful interface labels those concepts separately and explains which one a number represents. An AI-generated forecast should not appear as an oracle's final determination. The prediction oracle and prediction market comparison explores the distinction without assuming that a displayed price guarantees an outcome.

Review how the position can end

Compare an attempted sale before resolution with holding through the documented settlement process. For the sale, inspect the actual executable proposal and its conditions. For settlement, inspect the payout rule, unresolved disputes, and any remaining redemption step. Keep unavailable liquidity or uncertain timing explicit. A wallet should not present a marked position value as spendable assets merely because the event appears complete in a news report.

Keep asking

Prediction Markets questions

Clarify the assumptions before comparing tools or authorizing an action.

Does an oracle predict the winning outcome?

An outcome-resolution oracle determines a result under specified rules. That task differs from forecasting an event before it occurs or summarizing current trading expectations.

Can a headline establish that a market has settled?

No. Check the actual market rules and resolution state. Evidence about the event and completion of the position's settlement process are separate observations.